A Bayesian Belief Network Analysis of Factors Influencing the Propensity to Vietnamese Coffee Export

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine which particular organisational and managerial factors contribute to the propensity to export in Vietnam. For this purpose the coffee sector is chosen for investigation. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) model was developed from a set of 12 internal variables and 9 external variables to determine factors that influence export propensity in Vietnamese coffee sector using data from workshops and in-depth interviews. These were inputted into the software Netica for BBN analyses. Logistic, together with business environment, meeting customer habits, customer satisfaction, firm size, and variety of product were found to be strong influential factors explaining coffee export propensity, while the promotion had the least influence on coffee export propensity.